Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: hopeful statements are issued from different nations. Immense energy is devoted on containing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from across the border, a ability enabled by current data. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to counter approaching cruise missiles streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: multiple launches fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably supplied through partner states. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from ruin and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a heavy machine gun fired at a drone somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – probably allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its target.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: multiple fatalities, destruction and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a dependence that European nations are clearly incapable to replace in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from Washington sparked intense emotion, controversy and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from American administration adheres to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This cycle will, certainly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership functions according to a assumption understood by international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government presumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does little to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from thinking that the situation will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the coming year.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing lives and land but avoiding a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its favour.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: political desires to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not switch to internal issues. And although their objective will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to terminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect specific hesitation to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
